The Recession Question
In the last few months, you've probably started hearing the R-word being thrown around more often. Whether it's because you can't find a job or because the orange man in the Oval Office keeps talking about tariffs, we all sort of feel that something isn't quite right about the economy.
But you can never quite place your finger on it. There's no definitive proof that you can point to. That's the worst part of recessions: the uncertainty. So far, 2025 has been a long string of bad news. And yet we can only continue to yell into the abyss as we watch the economy - and ourselves - fall evermore into it.
And yet, the government and our corporations continue to insist that everything is just splendid, all while the creases in their brows deepen month after month. As you listen to their empty promises, just bear in mind:
- The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) absolutely LOVES to inflate initial predictions of monthly job growth, before quietly revising them down once the official numbers are in.
- Economic performance is generally aligned with stock performance, thus most companies are directly invested in the economy chugging along. A worsening economy means that investors will divest from risky investment (e.g. stocks) into safer ones (e.g. treasuries).
Admittedly, in a deep, dark crevice of my mind, I want to confirm that the recession is here. I'm sure many people feel that way, otherwise those recession indicator Tiktoks wouldn't be so dang popular. I'd finally receive a definitive answer to my question, and conveniently, one that absolves me of blame for my state of unemployment.
But in truth, I know that the real answer is complex and ugly. So do our politicians, who do their best to ignore the growing national debt. So do employers, who try their hardest to keep shareholders from jumping ship. The truth is never as simple as the story we tell ourselves, but what our minds understand, our hearts cannot bear. Thus, it takes courage to see through the lies told to us by the world and - more importantly - by ourselves.
So are we in a recession? Maybe, maybe not. But either way, we can only strive to better care for the things within our control. A few that I - personally - am trying to take more initiative on include:
- Reaching out to friends and family and listening to their worries
- Networking more, keeping my resume updated, and waiting for opportunity
- Writing more (i.e. this blog post)
"I believe in a universe that doesn't care and people that do" - Angus Delaney, A Night in the Woods